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Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation

420 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score52.0%Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 56.0%Based on 420 games
0%52.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 56.0%
Outcome Distribution
49.9%4.2%45.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Nh3
Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation
Analyzen=420
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 52.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.0% and 56.0%), based on 420 Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 64% → 55%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 63.6% win rate (4 games)
  • 1000-1199: 55.6% win rate (3 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.5% win rate (4 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.8% win rate (5 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.7% win rate (36 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.3% win rate (86 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.7% win rate (136 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.2% win rate (110 games)
  • 2500+: 54.7% win rate (36 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (60%), worst in Rapid (45%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 50.3% win rate (85 games)
  • Blitz: 50.1% win rate (299 games)
  • Rapid: 45.2% win rate (35 games)
  • Classical: 60.0% win rate (1 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799——
1800-1999——
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (62 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 17.8% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 60.0% expected score (109 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (81 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 64.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (17 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
52.1%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
54.5%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 45.9%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 420 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 52.7% win rate for white (136 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (50.1%) outperforms Bullet (50.3%) by -0.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 45.7%-59.7%) win rate for white, based on 136 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 38.5%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 110 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 45.3%-54.8%) win rate for white (299 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation is slightly favors black with a 49.9% (90% CI: 45.9%-53.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.