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Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit

6.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score55.7%Range (90% confident): 54.6% – 56.7%Based on 6.1K games
0%55.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.6% – 56.7%
Outcome Distribution
53.8%3.7%42.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.e4
Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit
Analyzen=6.1K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit has a 55.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.6% and 56.7%), based on 6.1K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +15.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 57%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.5% win rate (804 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.9% win rate (514 games)
  • 1200-1399: 56.2% win rate (563 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.8% win rate (719 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.1% win rate (920 games)
  • 1800-1999: 58.5% win rate (1,072 games)
  • 2000-2199: 54.5% win rate (876 games)
  • 2200-2499: 58.4% win rate (552 games)
  • 2500+: 57.2% win rate (106 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (55%), worst in Rapid (51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.9% win rate (24 games)
  • Bullet: 54.7% win rate (2,238 games)
  • Blitz: 54.0% win rate (2,909 games)
  • Rapid: 50.9% win rate (925 games)
  • Classical: 52.4% win rate (30 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.9% expected score (94 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (439 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (266 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (109 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (259 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (140 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.5% expected score (168 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (247 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (141 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (271 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (326 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 62.7% expected score (109 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (356 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (407 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (142 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (474 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 62.8% expected score (503 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (89 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (341 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.6% expected score (505 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 60.5% expected score (327 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.9% expected score (215 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (98 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 65.8% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
52.1%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
54.5%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit has a 53.8% (90% CI: 52.8%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.1K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 58.5% win rate for white (1.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (54.7%) outperforms Rapid (50.9%) by 3.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit?

The Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit has a 46.5% (90% CI: 43.6%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 804 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit has a 52.9% (90% CI: 49.2%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 514 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit has a 56.2% (90% CI: 52.8%-59.7%) win rate for white, based on 563 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit has a 51.8% (90% CI: 48.8%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 719 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit has a 51.1% (90% CI: 48.3%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 920 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit has a 58.5% (90% CI: 56.1%-61.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit has a 54.5% (90% CI: 51.8%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 876 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit has a 58.4% (90% CI: 55.0%-61.9%) win rate for white, based on 552 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit has a 57.2% (90% CI: 49.3%-65.0%) win rate for white, based on 106 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit has a 54.7% (90% CI: 52.9%-56.4%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit has a 54.0% (90% CI: 52.5%-55.5%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 48.2%-53.6%) win rate for white (925 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit is statistically favors white with a 53.8% (90% CI: 52.8%-54.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.