6.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation has a 52.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.0% and 52.9%), based on 6.9K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 14% → 43%
Best in Rapid (54%), worst in Bullet (47%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K rated games from Lichess.
The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 57.5% win rate for white (222 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (53.8%) outperforms Bullet (47.3%) by 6.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation has a 57.5% (90% CI: 52.0%-62.9%) win rate for white, based on 222 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 46.3%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 593 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 50.7%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.0%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.5%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation has a 42.7% (90% CI: 39.8%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 744 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.6%-49.0%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.
In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.8%-51.3%) win rate for white (4.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.
In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-57.8%) win rate for white (412 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.
The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.