4.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Alatortsev-Lisitsyn Line has a 49.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.6% and 51.0%), based on 4.6K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 60% → 46%
Best in Classical (61%), worst in Blitz (47%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Alatortsev-Lisitsyn Line has a 47.1% (90% CI: 45.9%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K rated games from Lichess.
The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Alatortsev-Lisitsyn Line performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 50.9% win rate for white (786 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (53.4%) outperforms Bullet (46.8%) by 6.6%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Alatortsev-Lisitsyn Line has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Alatortsev-Lisitsyn Line has a 52.3% (90% CI: 47.5%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 286 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Alatortsev-Lisitsyn Line has a 50.9% (90% CI: 47.9%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 786 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Alatortsev-Lisitsyn Line has a 48.8% (90% CI: 46.6%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Alatortsev-Lisitsyn Line has a 42.6% (90% CI: 40.5%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Alatortsev-Lisitsyn Line has a 45.8% (90% CI: 41.9%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 432 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Alatortsev-Lisitsyn Line has a 46.8% (90% CI: 44.5%-49.1%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.
In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Alatortsev-Lisitsyn Line has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.0%-48.0%) win rate for white (3.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.
In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Alatortsev-Lisitsyn Line has a 53.4% (90% CI: 48.5%-58.2%) win rate for white (286 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.
The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Alatortsev-Lisitsyn Line is statistically balanced with a 47.1% (90% CI: 45.9%-48.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.