TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack

6.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
White Expected Score54.1%Range (90% confident): 53.2% – 55.1%Based on 6.9K games
0%54.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.2% – 55.1%
Outcome Distribution
51.4%5.5%43.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Nh3
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack
Analyzen=6.9K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.5%

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 54.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.2% and 55.1%), based on 6.9K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • 1200-1399: 55.6% win rate (21 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.5% win rate (76 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.3% win rate (452 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.9% win rate (1,434 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.5% win rate (2,314 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.4% win rate (2,262 games)
  • 2500+: 50.2% win rate (364 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (58%), worst in Rapid (50%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 50.6% win rate (1,709 games)
  • Blitz: 51.7% win rate (4,815 games)
  • Rapid: 50.3% win rate (375 games)
  • Classical: 57.9% win rate (27 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 60.4% expected score (37 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (156 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (268 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (330 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (1,009 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (82 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (414 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (1,728 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (163 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (575 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (1,595 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.8% expected score (91 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (188 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (170 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
52.1%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
54.5%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 51.5% win rate for white (2.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (51.7%) outperforms Rapid (50.3%) by 1.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack?

The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 51.3% (90% CI: 47.4%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 452 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 50.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.8%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 51.4% (90% CI: 49.7%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 50.2% (90% CI: 45.9%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 364 Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 10.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 50.6% (90% CI: 48.6%-52.6%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 51.7% (90% CI: 50.5%-52.9%) win rate for white (4.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 50.3% (90% CI: 46.1%-54.6%) win rate for white (375 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack is statistically favors white with a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.