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Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation

12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.8%Range (90% confident): 54.0% – 55.5%Based on 12K games
0%54.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.0% – 55.5%
Outcome Distribution
52.1%5.4%42.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Nh3
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
Analyzen=12K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.4%

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation has a 54.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.0% and 55.5%), based on 12K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 31% → 54%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 31.0% win rate (13 games)
  • 1000-1199: 40.4% win rate (22 games)
  • 1200-1399: 57.1% win rate (94 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.3% win rate (275 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.9% win rate (1,039 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.6% win rate (3,056 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.0% win rate (4,179 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.4% win rate (2,968 games)
  • 2500+: 54.4% win rate (577 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (54%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 51.8% win rate (3,716 games)
  • Blitz: 52.0% win rate (7,731 games)
  • Rapid: 54.3% win rate (747 games)
  • Classical: 54.4% win rate (27 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (38 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 62.4% expected score (47 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (83 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (153 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 71.5% expected score (38 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (394 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (567 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.9% expected score (74 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (850 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (1,934 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (260 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (929 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (2,991 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.8% expected score (250 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (1,021 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (1,847 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (98 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.5% expected score (390 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (177 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
54.5%
Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation
45.4%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 12K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.4% win rate for white (3.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (54.3%) outperforms Bullet (51.8%) by 2.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 47.3%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 275 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 50.4%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.1%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 51.9%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation has a 54.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 577 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.4%-53.1%) win rate for white (3.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.9%) win rate for white (7.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation has a 54.3% (90% CI: 51.3%-57.3%) win rate for white (747 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.