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Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation

34K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.6%Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 50.1%Based on 34K games
0%49.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 50.1%
Outcome Distribution
47.7%3.7%48.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
2.Qd3
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
Analyzen=34K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation has a 49.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.2% and 50.1%), based on 34K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 59%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.5% win rate (4,079 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.8% win rate (2,996 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.4% win rate (3,393 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.3% win rate (4,684 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.4% win rate (5,404 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.3% win rate (6,075 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.6% win rate (4,606 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.7% win rate (2,144 games)
  • 2500+: 59.2% win rate (197 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.1% win rate (37 games)
  • Bullet: 48.5% win rate (9,800 games)
  • Blitz: 47.9% win rate (17,760 games)
  • Rapid: 46.0% win rate (5,589 games)
  • Classical: 44.9% win rate (392 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.4% expected score (587 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (2,136 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (1,325 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (23 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (658 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (1,389 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (893 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (714 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (1,772 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (754 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (150 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 73.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (1,369 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (2,385 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (824 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (97 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (1,373 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (3,299 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (695 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (31 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (1,806 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (3,547 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (686 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (33 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (2,160 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (2,170 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (266 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (1,013 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (987 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.0% expected score (144 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.5% expected score (120 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 67.0% expected score (75 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
52.1%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
54.5%
Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation
45.4%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 34K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 59.2% win rate for white (197 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.5%) outperforms Classical (44.9%) by 3.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 43.3%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.3%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.0%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.1%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.3%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.3%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 6.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 48.9%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation has a 59.2% (90% CI: 53.4%-64.9%) win rate for white, based on 197 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.3%) win rate for white (9.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.5%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.9%-47.1%) win rate for white (5.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 40.7%-49.0%) win rate for white (392 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.