274K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit has a 57.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 57.8% and 58.1%), based on 274K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 48% → 58%
Best in Bullet (57%), worst in Classical (52%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit has a 56.2% (90% CI: 56.0%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 274K rated games from Lichess.
The Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 58.3% win rate for white (6.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (57.1%) outperforms UltraBullet (53.6%) by 3.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.3%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.2%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit has a 55.3% (90% CI: 54.6%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.6%-57.6%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit has a 57.6% (90% CI: 57.2%-57.9%) win rate for white, based on 52K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit has a 56.2% (90% CI: 55.9%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 72K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit has a 55.2% (90% CI: 54.9%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 60K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit has a 55.7% (90% CI: 55.3%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit has a 58.3% (90% CI: 57.3%-59.3%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.
In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit has a 53.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-58.0%) win rate for white (352 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.
In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.9%-57.4%) win rate for white (90K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.
In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit has a 55.8% (90% CI: 55.6%-56.0%) win rate for white (145K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit has a 55.7% (90% CI: 55.3%-56.1%) win rate for white (37K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.
In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit has a 51.7% (90% CI: 49.4%-54.0%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.
The Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit is statistically favors white with a 56.2% (90% CI: 56.0%-56.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.