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Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit

369 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score53.3%Range (90% confident): 49.0% – 57.5%Based on 369 games
0%53.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.0% – 57.5%
Outcome Distribution
51.7%3.1%45.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.d3
Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit
Analyzen=369
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.1%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit has a 53.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.0% and 57.5%), based on 369 Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +1.2% · Breakpoint: 1800-1999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 41% → 69%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.2% win rate (7 games)
  • 1000-1199: 28.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.4% win rate (8 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.1% win rate (42 games)
  • 1600-1799: 56.1% win rate (151 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.6% win rate (132 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 2200-2499: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
  • 2500+: 69.2% win rate (5 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (55%), worst in Rapid (47%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid

  • Bullet: 54.6% win rate (133 games)
  • Blitz: 51.0% win rate (168 games)
  • Rapid: 46.8% win rate (68 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799——
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499————
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 63.3% expected score (70 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (56 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (24 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (78 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (30 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit has a 51.7% (90% CI: 47.4%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 369 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 56.1% win rate for white (151 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (54.6%) outperforms Rapid (46.8%) by 7.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit has a 56.1% (90% CI: 49.4%-62.6%) win rate for white, based on 151 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit has a 50.6% (90% CI: 43.5%-57.7%) win rate for white, based on 132 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit has a 54.6% (90% CI: 47.6%-61.6%) win rate for white (133 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 44.7%-57.3%) win rate for white (168 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit is statistically balanced with a 51.7% (90% CI: 47.4%-55.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.