768 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense has a 46.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 43.6% and 49.5%), based on 768 Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 60% → 47%
Best in Rapid (44%), worst in Classical (33%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense has a 43.3% (90% CI: 40.4%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 768 rated games from Lichess.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 47.4% win rate for white (103 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (43.7%) outperforms Rapid (44.2%) by -0.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense has a sharpness score of 93.6 (decisive), meaning 93.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense has a 40.9% (90% CI: 35.4%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 215 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense has a 42.2% (90% CI: 37.9%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 355 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense has a 47.4% (90% CI: 39.4%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 103 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 10.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense has a 42.2% (90% CI: 36.6%-47.8%) win rate for white (206 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.
In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense has a 43.7% (90% CI: 40.0%-47.4%) win rate for white (487 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense is slightly favors black with a 43.3% (90% CI: 40.4%-46.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.