1.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line has a 48.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.5% and 50.2%), based on 1.9K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 60% → 45%
Best in Bullet (46%), worst in Classical (23%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line has a 42.9% (90% CI: 41.1%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K rated games from Lichess.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 43.6% win rate for white (605 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (46.0%) outperforms Rapid (40.8%) by 5.2%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line has a sharpness score of 89.3 (moderately decisive), meaning 89.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line has a 43.0% (90% CI: 37.6%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 223 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line has a 43.6% (90% CI: 40.3%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 605 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 11.8% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line has a 40.6% (90% CI: 37.9%-43.4%) win rate for white, based on 849 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 11.9% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line has a 45.1% (90% CI: 37.9%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 126 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 10.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line has a 46.0% (90% CI: 42.7%-49.3%) win rate for white (606 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.3%.
In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line has a 41.6% (90% CI: 39.3%-44.0%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.0%.
In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line has a 40.8% (90% CI: 33.1%-48.7%) win rate for white (105 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.8%.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line is slightly favors black with a 42.9% (90% CI: 41.1%-44.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.