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Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation

285K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.7%Range (90% confident): 54.5% – 54.8%Based on 285K games
0%54.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.5% – 54.8%
Outcome Distribution
52.8%3.7%43.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Nd2
Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation
Analyzen=285K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation has a 54.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.5% and 54.8%), based on 285K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~50%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.0% win rate (4,885 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.2% win rate (11,068 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.4% win rate (19,699 games)
  • 1400-1599: 54.0% win rate (33,237 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.3% win rate (51,960 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.6% win rate (69,527 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.4% win rate (59,550 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.4% win rate (30,116 games)
  • 2500+: 50.0% win rate (4,466 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (56%), worst in UltraBullet (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.3% win rate (308 games)
  • Bullet: 51.6% win rate (101,405 games)
  • Blitz: 53.1% win rate (145,428 games)
  • Rapid: 55.1% win rate (36,064 games)
  • Classical: 55.7% win rate (1,303 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,380 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (2,276 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (1,222 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (3,673 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (4,872 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (2,491 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 36.8% expected score (25 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (6,576 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (9,402 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (3,610 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 62.0% expected score (86 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (64 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (11,062 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (16,319 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 58.3% expected score (5,528 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 63.2% expected score (264 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (81 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (15,990 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (28,451 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (7,099 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.4% expected score (339 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (78 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (21,046 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (39,459 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (8,515 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (429 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (22,230 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (31,191 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (5,965 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.1% expected score (132 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 37.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (15,890 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (12,610 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.5% expected score (1,579 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (3,558 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (848 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (55 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 88.5% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 285K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 54.0% win rate for white (33K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (55.1%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.3%) by 6.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.4%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.8%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.5%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 52K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.3%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 70K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 60K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 43.6%-53.0%) win rate for white (308 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.1%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.9%) win rate for white (101K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.3%) win rate for white (145K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation has a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.7%-55.6%) win rate for white (36K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation has a 55.7% (90% CI: 53.4%-57.9%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.