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Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit

7.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score64.5%Range (90% confident): 63.6% – 65.4%Based on 7.7K games
0%64.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 63.6% – 65.4%
Outcome Distribution
63.5%1.9%34.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.Ne6
Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit
Analyzen=7.7K
Avg Length28 moves
Sharpness98%
Draw Rate1.9%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit has a 64.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 63.6% and 65.4%), based on 7.7K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +29.3% · Breakpoint: Never

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 88% → 67%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 88.2% win rate (7 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.6% win rate (41 games)
  • 1200-1399: 66.6% win rate (232 games)
  • 1400-1599: 61.0% win rate (770 games)
  • 1600-1799: 60.1% win rate (1,524 games)
  • 1800-1999: 63.7% win rate (1,963 games)
  • 2000-2199: 65.6% win rate (1,659 games)
  • 2200-2499: 64.7% win rate (1,230 games)
  • 2500+: 67.3% win rate (307 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (71%), worst in UltraBullet (58%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 57.6% win rate (41 games)
  • Bullet: 64.3% win rate (4,805 games)
  • Blitz: 62.5% win rate (2,531 games)
  • Rapid: 59.5% win rate (354 games)
  • Classical: 71.4% win rate (2 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (28 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 69.0% expected score (138 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 65.8% expected score (81 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 59.9% expected score (404 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 64.5% expected score (307 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (56 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 62.2% expected score (682 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 60.6% expected score (741 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (91 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 66.2% expected score (1,044 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 63.9% expected score (797 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (116 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.3% expected score (18 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 66.0% expected score (1,134 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 68.7% expected score (445 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 62.6% expected score (62 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 65.7% expected score (1,072 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 64.7% expected score (142 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 71.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 68.1% expected score (301 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit has a 63.5% (90% CI: 62.6%-64.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.7K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 65.6% win rate for white (1.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (64.3%) outperforms Rapid (59.5%) by 4.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit has a sharpness score of 98.1 (very decisive), meaning 98.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit has a 66.6% (90% CI: 61.4%-71.6%) win rate for white, based on 232 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit has a 61.0% (90% CI: 58.1%-63.9%) win rate for white, based on 770 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit has a 60.1% (90% CI: 58.0%-62.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit has a 63.7% (90% CI: 61.9%-65.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit has a 65.6% (90% CI: 63.7%-67.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit has a 64.7% (90% CI: 62.4%-66.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit has a 67.3% (90% CI: 62.8%-71.6%) win rate for white, based on 307 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit has a 64.3% (90% CI: 63.2%-65.5%) win rate for white (4.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit has a 62.5% (90% CI: 60.9%-64.1%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit has a 59.5% (90% CI: 55.2%-63.7%) win rate for white (354 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit is statistically favors white with a 63.5% (90% CI: 62.6%-64.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.