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Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit

129K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score62.0%Range (90% confident): 61.8% – 62.2%Based on 129K games
0%62.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 61.8% – 62.2%
Outcome Distribution
60.3%3.2%36.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Bc4
Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit
Analyzen=129K
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit has a 62.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 61.8% and 62.2%), based on 129K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +32.3% · Breakpoint: Never

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 93.1 · Trap factor: +19.3 · n=129K

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 65%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.1% win rate (39 games)
  • 1000-1199: 65.9% win rate (280 games)
  • 1200-1399: 60.6% win rate (1,359 games)
  • 1400-1599: 60.7% win rate (5,451 games)
  • 1600-1799: 61.6% win rate (15,930 games)
  • 1800-1999: 59.1% win rate (34,226 games)
  • 2000-2199: 59.6% win rate (39,811 games)
  • 2200-2499: 61.1% win rate (25,249 games)
  • 2500+: 64.9% win rate (6,330 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~62%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.9% win rate (162 games)
  • Bullet: 59.7% win rate (61,871 games)
  • Blitz: 60.9% win rate (56,766 games)
  • Rapid: 61.3% win rate (9,474 games)
  • Classical: 62.1% win rate (402 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 67.4% expected score (194 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 62.8% expected score (65 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.9% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.8% expected score (875 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 64.2% expected score (417 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 66.8% expected score (64 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (2,812 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 62.8% expected score (2,309 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 64.6% expected score (301 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 67.5% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 60.7% expected score (6,216 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 63.7% expected score (8,556 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 65.7% expected score (1,086 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 73.0% expected score (42 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (52 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 59.3% expected score (12,241 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 61.1% expected score (18,792 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 62.5% expected score (2,957 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 63.5% expected score (184 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 74.7% expected score (41 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 59.3% expected score (16,244 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 62.9% expected score (19,449 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 62.8% expected score (3,935 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.3% expected score (142 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 62.3% expected score (17,354 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 64.7% expected score (6,777 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.6% expected score (1,084 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.9% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 67.3% expected score (5,908 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 64.5% expected score (393 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 68.4% expected score (23 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit has a 60.3% (90% CI: 60.1%-60.6%) win rate for white, based on 129K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 64.9% win rate for white (6.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (60.9%) outperforms UltraBullet (60.9%) by 0.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit has a 65.9% (90% CI: 61.2%-70.5%) win rate for white, based on 280 Lichess games. Average game length is 21 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit has a 60.6% (90% CI: 58.4%-62.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit has a 60.7% (90% CI: 59.6%-61.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit has a 61.6% (90% CI: 61.0%-62.3%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit has a 59.1% (90% CI: 58.6%-59.5%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit has a 59.6% (90% CI: 59.2%-60.0%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit has a 61.1% (90% CI: 60.6%-61.6%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit has a 64.9% (90% CI: 63.9%-65.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit has a 60.9% (90% CI: 54.5%-67.0%) win rate for white (162 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.9%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit has a 59.7% (90% CI: 59.4%-60.0%) win rate for white (62K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit has a 60.9% (90% CI: 60.5%-61.2%) win rate for white (57K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit has a 61.3% (90% CI: 60.5%-62.1%) win rate for white (9.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit has a 62.1% (90% CI: 58.1%-66.0%) win rate for white (402 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit is statistically favors white with a 60.3% (90% CI: 60.1%-60.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.