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Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line

10K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score55.3%Range (90% confident): 54.5% – 56.1%Based on 10K games
0%55.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.5% – 56.1%
Outcome Distribution
53.0%4.6%42.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
8.Bb3
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line
Analyzen=10K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line has a 55.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.5% and 56.1%), based on 10K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 57%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1000-1199: 81.8% win rate (4 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.7% win rate (33 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.3% win rate (118 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.2% win rate (494 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.4% win rate (1,788 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.1% win rate (3,514 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.1% win rate (3,451 games)
  • 2500+: 56.9% win rate (667 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (55%), worst in Classical (40%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 55.2% win rate (3,168 games)
  • Blitz: 52.2% win rate (6,051 games)
  • Rapid: 51.2% win rate (802 games)
  • Classical: 39.8% win rate (50 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (71 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (158 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (289 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (37 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (345 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (1,239 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (183 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (826 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (2,309 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (367 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (1,294 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (1,965 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (190 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 61.0% expected score (504 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (155 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 10K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 56.9% win rate for white (667 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (55.2%) outperforms Classical (39.8%) by 15.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line has a 47.3% (90% CI: 39.8%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 118 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line has a 53.2% (90% CI: 49.5%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 494 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line has a 51.4% (90% CI: 49.5%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line has a 53.1% (90% CI: 51.7%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line has a 53.1% (90% CI: 51.7%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line has a 56.9% (90% CI: 53.8%-60.1%) win rate for white, based on 667 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line has a 55.2% (90% CI: 53.8%-56.7%) win rate for white (3.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.3%) win rate for white (6.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line has a 51.2% (90% CI: 48.3%-54.1%) win rate for white (802 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line is statistically favors white with a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.