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Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack

140K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.6%Range (90% confident): 51.4% – 51.9%Based on 140K games
0%51.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.4% – 51.9%
Outcome Distribution
49.1%5.1%45.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Ng3
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack
Analyzen=140K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.1%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack has a 51.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.4% and 51.9%), based on 140K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 49% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.9% win rate (69 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.8% win rate (381 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.0% win rate (1,484 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.9% win rate (5,564 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.8% win rate (17,227 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.4% win rate (38,201 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.6% win rate (45,034 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.2% win rate (27,438 games)
  • 2500+: 51.0% win rate (4,477 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (57%), worst in Blitz (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 56.6% win rate (70 games)
  • Bullet: 50.0% win rate (53,852 games)
  • Blitz: 48.3% win rate (73,880 games)
  • Rapid: 49.0% win rate (11,531 games)
  • Classical: 49.0% win rate (542 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (47 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 63.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (247 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (103 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (827 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (551 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.8% expected score (96 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (2,403 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (2,719 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (412 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 64.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (5,777 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (9,907 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (1,401 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (130 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.6% expected score (20 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (10,260 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (24,000 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (3,701 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (220 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 64.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (14,502 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (25,836 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (4,533 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.6% expected score (151 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (15,886 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (10,202 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (1,324 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.3% expected score (23 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (3,903 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (550 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 72.5% expected score (23 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 140K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 52.0% win rate for white (1.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.0%) outperforms Classical (49.0%) by 1.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack has a 50.8% (90% CI: 46.6%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 381 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 0.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack has a 52.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.4%) win rate for white (54K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.6%) win rate for white (74K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.8%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack has a 49.0% (90% CI: 45.5%-52.6%) win rate for white (542 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.9%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack is statistically balanced with a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.