3.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Main Line has a 52.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.0% and 53.9%), based on 3.2K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 60% → 50%
Best in Bullet (52%), worst in Classical (44%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Main Line has a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.7%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K rated games from Lichess.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Main Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.0% win rate for white (784 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (51.9%) outperforms Rapid (44.9%) by 7.0%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Main Line has a sharpness score of 91.4 (decisive), meaning 91.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Main Line has a 47.5% (90% CI: 43.9%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 513 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Main Line has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.1%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 9.0% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Main Line has a 50.0% (90% CI: 47.0%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 784 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 8.7% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Main Line has a 51.9% (90% CI: 49.4%-54.5%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.
In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Main Line has a 46.5% (90% CI: 44.7%-48.3%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.4%.
In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Main Line has a 44.9% (90% CI: 37.5%-52.3%) win rate for white (120 Lichess games). Draw rate is 16.9%.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Main Line is statistically balanced with a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.7%-49.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.