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Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack

6.8M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score46.4%Range (90% confident): 46.4% – 46.4%Based on 6.8M games
0%46.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.4% – 46.4%
Outcome Distribution
44.6%3.6%51.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
2.Bc4
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
Analyzen=6.8M
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack has a 46.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.4% and 46.4%), based on 6.8M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.6% win rate (402,146 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.7% win rate (756,974 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.0% win rate (1,288,182 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.6% win rate (1,634,688 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.6% win rate (1,494,283 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.6% win rate (902,457 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.2% win rate (293,380 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.3% win rate (62,855 games)
  • 2500+: 50.3% win rate (4,545 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 43.7% win rate (50,099 games)
  • Bullet: 45.0% win rate (2,130,932 games)
  • Blitz: 44.9% win rate (3,330,220 games)
  • Rapid: 43.6% win rate (1,287,741 games)
  • Classical: 40.3% win rate (40,518 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (1,142 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (105,272 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (189,157 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (105,849 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.0% expected score (726 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.6% expected score (4,711 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (206,385 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (382,759 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (160,129 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (2,990 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (13,293 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (345,625 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (665,463 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (256,257 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (7,544 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (15,252 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (443,869 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (831,715 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (330,495 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (13,357 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (10,069 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (451,978 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (742,388 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (277,817 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (12,031 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (4,712 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (347,758 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (412,704 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (133,682 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (3,601 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (823 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (173,395 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (96,414 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (22,500 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.0% expected score (248 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (97 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (52,601 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (9,130 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (1,006 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (21 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (4,049 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (490 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Continuations (1)
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit
54.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack has a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.6%-44.6%) win rate for white, based on 6.8M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.3% win rate for white (4.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (45.0%) outperforms Classical (40.3%) by 4.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack has a 42.6% (90% CI: 42.5%-42.7%) win rate for white, based on 402K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.6%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 757K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.9%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.3M Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack has a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.5%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.6M Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack has a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.5%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.5M Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack has a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.5%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 902K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack has a 45.2% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 293K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 63K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack has a 43.7% (90% CI: 43.4%-44.1%) win rate for white (50K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.9%-45.0%) win rate for white (2.1M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.8%-44.9%) win rate for white (3.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack has a 43.6% (90% CI: 43.5%-43.6%) win rate for white (1.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack has a 40.3% (90% CI: 39.9%-40.7%) win rate for white (41K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack is slightly favors black with a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.6%-44.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.