TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation

237K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
White Expected Score55.6%Range (90% confident): 55.4% – 55.7%Based on 237K games
0%55.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.4% – 55.7%
Outcome Distribution
53.5%4.1%42.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Qf3
Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation
Analyzen=237K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation has a 55.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.4% and 55.7%), based on 237K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 55%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.4% win rate (10,733 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.8% win rate (12,219 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.2% win rate (15,732 games)
  • 1400-1599: 54.4% win rate (22,918 games)
  • 1600-1799: 55.2% win rate (31,693 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.9% win rate (43,195 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.2% win rate (54,107 games)
  • 2200-2499: 54.1% win rate (36,435 games)
  • 2500+: 55.4% win rate (10,434 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (54%), worst in Classical (50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.7% win rate (1,541 games)
  • Bullet: 54.2% win rate (87,328 games)
  • Blitz: 53.5% win rate (118,345 games)
  • Rapid: 51.3% win rate (29,081 games)
  • Classical: 49.9% win rate (1,171 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (1,528 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (5,719 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (3,465 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 25.7% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (2,649 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (5,546 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (3,923 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (84 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 40.5% expected score (51 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (4,868 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (7,052 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (3,575 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (186 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.5% expected score (110 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (7,266 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (11,251 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (4,020 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (271 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (588 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (10,145 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (16,700 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (4,037 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (223 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.6% expected score (682 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (13,086 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (24,772 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (4,419 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (236 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (85 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (21,804 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (27,992 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (4,098 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.5% expected score (128 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (17,563 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (17,389 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.2% expected score (1,454 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 66.4% expected score (29 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.1% expected score (8,419 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 62.3% expected score (1,924 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.1% expected score (90 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.3%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 237K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 55.2% win rate for white (32K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (54.2%) outperforms Classical (49.9%) by 4.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation has a 54.4% (90% CI: 53.8%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation has a 55.2% (90% CI: 54.8%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.5%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 54K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 53.6%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation has a 55.4% (90% CI: 54.6%-56.2%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-53.8%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation has a 54.2% (90% CI: 54.0%-54.5%) win rate for white (87K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.3%-53.7%) win rate for white (118K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.7%) win rate for white (29K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 47.4%-52.3%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation is statistically favors white with a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.3%-53.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.