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Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation

25K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.4%Range (90% confident): 52.9% – 54.0%Based on 25K games
0%53.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.9% – 54.0%
Outcome Distribution
50.7%5.4%43.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...h6
Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation
Analyzen=25K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.4%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation has a 53.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.9% and 54.0%), based on 25K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 54%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.4% win rate (335 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.3% win rate (544 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.9% win rate (1,207 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.6% win rate (2,732 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.7% win rate (4,508 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.5% win rate (5,925 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.9% win rate (4,838 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.8% win rate (4,208 games)
  • 2500+: 54.1% win rate (913 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (52%), worst in Classical (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.4% win rate (42 games)
  • Bullet: 49.5% win rate (8,993 games)
  • Blitz: 51.3% win rate (12,650 games)
  • Rapid: 51.8% win rate (3,384 games)
  • Classical: 46.0% win rate (141 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (43 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (238 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (54 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (130 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (296 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (114 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (292 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (651 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (258 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (760 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (1,430 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (500 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (37 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 73.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (887 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (2,817 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (743 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.6% expected score (52 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,165 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (3,626 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (1,089 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 35.5% expected score (33 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 23.9% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,750 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.6% expected score (2,552 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.8% expected score (516 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (3,135 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (960 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.8% expected score (110 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (831 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.2% expected score (80 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 25K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 52.9% win rate for white (4.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (51.3%) outperforms Classical (46.0%) by 5.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 42.9%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 335 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 42.8%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 544 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 46.5%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 51.7%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.5%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 51.4%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 913 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.4%) win rate for white (9.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.1%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.4%-53.2%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 39.2%-52.8%) win rate for white (141 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.