TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation

498K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
White Expected Score54.1%Range (90% confident): 54.0% – 54.2%Based on 498K games
0%54.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.0% – 54.2%
Outcome Distribution
50.9%6.2%42.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Bf4
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation
Analyzen=498K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.2%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation has a 54.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.0% and 54.2%), based on 498K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 54% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 54.4% win rate (948 games)
  • 1000-1199: 55.3% win rate (4,455 games)
  • 1200-1399: 54.3% win rate (12,898 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.8% win rate (29,916 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.2% win rate (61,756 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.7% win rate (114,718 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.2% win rate (140,195 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.2% win rate (112,618 games)
  • 2500+: 49.7% win rate (20,236 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (52%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.6% win rate (49 games)
  • Bullet: 51.6% win rate (159,278 games)
  • Blitz: 50.5% win rate (273,960 games)
  • Rapid: 51.0% win rate (61,341 games)
  • Classical: 49.4% win rate (3,112 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (527 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (323 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 63.2% expected score (97 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (2,368 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (1,627 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 59.9% expected score (453 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (5,649 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (5,659 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (1,551 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (9,225 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (16,146 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (4,338 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.5% expected score (199 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (16,058 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (35,169 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (9,895 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (622 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (27,610 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (68,367 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (17,479 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (1,258 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (35,704 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (84,624 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (19,020 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (841 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (47,983 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (56,241 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (8,232 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (160 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (14,154 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (5,804 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (276 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 498K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 55.3% win rate for white (4.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.6%) outperforms Classical (49.4%) by 2.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation has a sharpness score of 93.8 (decisive), meaning 93.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation has a 54.4% (90% CI: 51.7%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 948 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 54.1%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation has a 54.3% (90% CI: 53.6%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.3%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 62K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 115K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 140K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 113K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.8%) win rate for white (159K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.7%) win rate for white (274K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.3%) win rate for white (61K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.9%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.0%-50.9%) win rate for white (3.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.8%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.