TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation

151K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score52.0%Range (90% confident): 51.8% – 52.2%Based on 151K games
0%52.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.8% – 52.2%
Outcome Distribution
48.5%7.0%44.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
8.h5
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation
Analyzen=151K
Avg Length40 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate7.0%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 52.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.8% and 52.2%), based on 151K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 32% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 31.8% win rate (41 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.0% win rate (206 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.4% win rate (881 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.0% win rate (3,421 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.4% win rate (12,298 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.9% win rate (31,545 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.1% win rate (51,066 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.1% win rate (43,754 games)
  • 2500+: 50.7% win rate (7,338 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in UltraBullet (33%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 33.3% win rate (9 games)
  • Bullet: 49.2% win rate (46,861 games)
  • Blitz: 48.2% win rate (87,522 games)
  • Rapid: 48.3% win rate (15,114 games)
  • Classical: 44.6% win rate (1,044 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 24.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 37.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (84 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (83 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (38 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (426 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (311 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (134 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (1,405 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,586 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (394 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (34 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (3,760 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (6,984 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (1,379 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (175 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (7,046 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (20,114 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (3,982 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (401 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (12,617 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (32,476 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (5,671 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (299 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (16,471 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (23,873 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (3,315 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.8% expected score (93 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (5,034 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (2,091 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (182 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 63.9% expected score (31 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 151K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.7% win rate for white (7.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.2%) outperforms Classical (44.6%) by 4.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a sharpness score of 93.0 (decisive), meaning 93.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 42.3%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 206 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 44.4% (90% CI: 41.6%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 881 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.6%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 51K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 44K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 7.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 11.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.6%) win rate for white (47K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.5%) win rate for white (88K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.0%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.1%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 42.1%-47.2%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.5%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.