TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line

454K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
White Expected Score55.6%Range (90% confident): 55.5% – 55.7%Based on 454K games
0%55.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.5% – 55.7%
Outcome Distribution
53.2%4.8%42.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.h4
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line
Analyzen=454K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.8%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line has a 55.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.5% and 55.7%), based on 454K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.4% win rate (776 games)
  • 1000-1199: 55.2% win rate (4,298 games)
  • 1200-1399: 55.4% win rate (16,730 games)
  • 1400-1599: 55.1% win rate (45,332 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.8% win rate (88,781 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.9% win rate (117,323 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.3% win rate (103,433 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.5% win rate (64,166 games)
  • 2500+: 52.8% win rate (13,088 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (55%), worst in UltraBullet (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.0% win rate (310 games)
  • Bullet: 53.6% win rate (153,166 games)
  • Blitz: 52.6% win rate (241,114 games)
  • Rapid: 54.4% win rate (56,454 games)
  • Classical: 55.0% win rate (2,883 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (513 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (192 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (70 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (2,554 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (1,430 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 63.0% expected score (307 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (8,104 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (7,145 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (1,422 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 64.8% expected score (46 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (16,099 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (23,594 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (5,390 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 62.7% expected score (227 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (23,864 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (51,457 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (12,620 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (827 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.2% expected score (42 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (28,769 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (68,493 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (18,774 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (1,245 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (208 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (31,363 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (57,599 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (13,800 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.4% expected score (463 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (31,856 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (28,310 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (3,932 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.2% expected score (60 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (10,044 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (2,894 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (139 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line has a 53.2% (90% CI: 53.1%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 454K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 55.4% win rate for white (17K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (54.4%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.0%) by 6.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line has a 48.4% (90% CI: 45.5%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 776 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line has a 55.2% (90% CI: 54.0%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line has a 55.4% (90% CI: 54.7%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line has a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.7%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.5%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 89K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 117K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 103K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 64K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line has a 48.0% (90% CI: 43.4%-52.7%) win rate for white (310 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line has a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.4%-53.8%) win rate for white (153K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.5%-52.8%) win rate for white (241K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line has a 54.4% (90% CI: 54.1%-54.8%) win rate for white (56K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line has a 55.0% (90% CI: 53.5%-56.6%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line is statistically favors white with a 53.2% (90% CI: 53.1%-53.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.