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Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System

45K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.5%Range (90% confident): 51.2% – 51.9%Based on 45K games
0%51.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.2% – 51.9%
Outcome Distribution
47.8%7.4%44.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
12...Be7
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System
Analyzen=45K
Avg Length41 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate7.4%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 51.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.2% and 51.9%), based on 45K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 9% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 9.1% win rate (4 games)
  • 1000-1199: 37.1% win rate (51 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.6% win rate (164 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.4% win rate (645 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.6% win rate (2,042 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.8% win rate (5,550 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.8% win rate (13,158 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.5% win rate (18,544 games)
  • 2500+: 49.5% win rate (4,630 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.5% win rate (4 games)
  • Bullet: 49.3% win rate (13,967 games)
  • Blitz: 47.3% win rate (26,556 games)
  • Rapid: 46.7% win rate (3,979 games)
  • Classical: 43.6% win rate (282 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.4% expected score (22 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.1% expected score (26 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (81 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (71 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (334 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (252 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 63.6% expected score (54 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 31.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (698 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (1,129 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (192 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,508 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (3,336 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (604 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (100 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (2,864 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (8,865 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (1,312 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (116 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (5,336 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (11,491 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (1,684 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (3,121 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (1,385 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (119 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 45K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 53.4% win rate for white (645 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.3%) outperforms Classical (43.6%) by 5.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a sharpness score of 92.6 (decisive), meaning 92.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 48.6% (90% CI: 42.3%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 164 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 53.4% (90% CI: 50.2%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 645 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 50.6% (90% CI: 48.8%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.1%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.2%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 9.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.0%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.8%) win rate for white (27K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.7%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.4%-48.0%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.7%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 43.6% (90% CI: 38.8%-48.4%) win rate for white (282 Lichess games). Draw rate is 18.2%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System is statistically balanced with a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.