TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation

4.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.0%Range (90% confident): 50.0% – 50.1%Based on 4.0M games
0%50.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.0% – 50.1%
Outcome Distribution
48.0%4.0%48.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Nf3
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation
Analyzen=4.0M
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation has a 50.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.0% and 50.1%), based on 4.0M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~48%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.3% win rate (104,881 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.9% win rate (371,100 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.3% win rate (725,280 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.5% win rate (941,096 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.1% win rate (860,473 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.5% win rate (555,108 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.4% win rate (275,759 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.8% win rate (162,528 games)
  • 2500+: 48.4% win rate (40,299 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (54%), worst in Classical (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.6% win rate (3,291 games)
  • Bullet: 49.2% win rate (1,072,884 games)
  • Blitz: 47.6% win rate (2,151,712 games)
  • Rapid: 47.5% win rate (782,714 games)
  • Classical: 45.8% win rate (25,923 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.7% expected score (34 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (41,208 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (53,393 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (10,217 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 35.3% expected score (29 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.5% expected score (144 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (111,968 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (202,824 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (55,831 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (333 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (301 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (181,252 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (396,600 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (145,019 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (2,108 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (711 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (212,062 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (506,673 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (214,287 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (7,363 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (602 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (194,162 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (463,527 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (192,497 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (9,685 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (853 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (146,292 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (287,005 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (116,194 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (4,764 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.8% expected score (471 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (95,781 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (142,051 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (36,280 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (1,176 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 59.2% expected score (168 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (67,535 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (83,664 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (10,897 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (264 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (22,624 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (15,975 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (1,492 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 66.1% expected score (201 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.0M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.8% win rate for white (163K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (53.6%) outperforms Classical (45.8%) by 7.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 105K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 371K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 725K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 941K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 860K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.3%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 555K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 276K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 163K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 47 moves with a 16.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.1%-55.0%) win rate for white (3.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.3%) win rate for white (1.1M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.6%-47.7%) win rate for white (2.2M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.6%) win rate for white (783K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.3%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.0% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.