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Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack

641K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.1%Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.2%Based on 641K games
0%53.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.2%
Outcome Distribution
51.3%3.5%45.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.g4
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack
Analyzen=641K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 53.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.0% and 53.2%), based on 641K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~50%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.3% win rate (8,953 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.5% win rate (23,550 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.7% win rate (39,281 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.3% win rate (62,918 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.8% win rate (110,093 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.1% win rate (167,522 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.0% win rate (159,591 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.8% win rate (63,411 games)
  • 2500+: 51.9% win rate (5,971 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (54%), worst in Classical (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.4% win rate (175 games)
  • Bullet: 53.5% win rate (188,536 games)
  • Blitz: 50.4% win rate (361,313 games)
  • Rapid: 50.0% win rate (87,839 games)
  • Classical: 47.7% win rate (3,427 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (2,239 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (5,347 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (1,362 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (4,659 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (12,906 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (5,934 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (50 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (8,547 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (19,845 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (10,579 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (298 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (57 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (18,643 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (31,298 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (12,189 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (731 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.7% expected score (47 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (32,071 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (61,485 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (15,679 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (811 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (39,167 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (105,899 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (21,519 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (921 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 64.8% expected score (29 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (47,432 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (94,873 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (16,711 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (546 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (31,604 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (27,977 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (3,756 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.4% expected score (63 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (4,174 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (1,683 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (110 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 641K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (110K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (52.4%) by 1.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 63K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 110K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 168K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 160K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 63K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 6.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 52.4% (90% CI: 46.2%-58.6%) win rate for white (175 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.3%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.4%-53.7%) win rate for white (189K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.5%) win rate for white (361K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.3%) win rate for white (88K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.3%-49.1%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack is statistically favors white with a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.