8.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation has a 48.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.9% and 49.7%), based on 8.7K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 47% → 35%
Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (31%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.5%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 8.7K rated games from Lichess.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 49.2% win rate for white (962 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (49.0%) outperforms Classical (31.4%) by 17.6%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 42.6%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 362 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 42.5%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.3%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 42.5%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.0%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 46.6%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 962 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 42.7%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 457 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation has a 35.3% (90% CI: 28.3%-42.5%) win rate for white, based on 119 Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 33.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.1%-50.9%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.
In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.0%-46.3%) win rate for white (4.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.
In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 45.6%-49.4%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation is slightly favors black with a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.5%-47.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.