What is the Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit expected score for White?
Snapshot
At all ratings, the Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit has a 55.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.1% and 57.3%), based on 1.5K Lichess games.
Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit
1.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
View As
Play ThisWhite Expected Score55.2%Range (90% confident): 53.1% – 57.3%Based on 1.5K games
0%55.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.1% – 57.3%
Outcome Distribution
53.0%4.4%42.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.e3
Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit
Analyzen=1.5K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
White Win% by Rating
Stable across ratings (~63%)
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 63.3% win rate (23 games)
- 1000-1199: 55.3% win rate (41 games)
- 1200-1399: 60.7% win rate (52 games)
- 1400-1599: 48.3% win rate (99 games)
- 1600-1799: 50.4% win rate (202 games)
- 1800-1999: 50.5% win rate (344 games)
- 2000-2199: 55.3% win rate (383 games)
- 2200-2499: 51.7% win rate (303 games)
- 2500+: 63.6% win rate (37 games)
White Win% by Time Control
Best in UltraBullet (56%), worst in Classical (39%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 55.6% win rate (3 games)
- Bullet: 53.7% win rate (843 games)
- Blitz: 52.4% win rate (557 games)
- Rapid: 49.7% win rate (76 games)
- Classical: 38.5% win rate (5 games)
White% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 74.3% expected score (15 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 68.6% expected score (12 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (22 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 64.9% expected score (22 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 73.6% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (43 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (48 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (97 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (78 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (26 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (157 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (171 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 36.2% expected score (13 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (232 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.2% expected score (139 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (241 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (60 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 68.9% expected score (33 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Parent
Bird Opening50.1%
Analyze Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit win rate?
The Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit has a 53.0% (90% CI: 50.9%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit perform best?
The Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 55.3% win rate for white (383 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
Bullet (53.7%) outperforms Rapid (49.7%) by 4.0%. Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit?
The Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit has a 50.4% (90% CI: 44.6%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 202 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
What is the Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 46.1%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 344 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
What is the Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit has a 55.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-59.4%) win rate for white, based on 383 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
What is the Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit has a 51.7% (90% CI: 47.0%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 303 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.
What is the Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit has a 53.7% (90% CI: 50.9%-56.5%) win rate for white (843 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.
What is the Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit has a 52.4% (90% CI: 48.9%-55.8%) win rate for white (557 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.
Is the Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit a good opening?
The Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit is statistically favors white with a 53.0% (90% CI: 50.9%-55.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.