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Analyzer

Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit

59K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.3%Range (90% confident): 51.0% – 51.7%Based on 59K games
0%51.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.0% – 51.7%
Outcome Distribution
49.7%3.3%47.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
1...g5
Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit
Analyzen=59K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 51.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.0% and 51.7%), based on 59K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.2% win rate (1,552 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.8% win rate (1,736 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.1% win rate (2,904 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.3% win rate (5,539 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.3% win rate (10,312 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.4% win rate (14,515 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.4% win rate (12,404 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.1% win rate (8,869 games)
  • 2500+: 51.5% win rate (1,636 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.0% win rate (1,135 games)
  • Bullet: 49.1% win rate (28,212 games)
  • Blitz: 50.0% win rate (25,608 games)
  • Rapid: 51.3% win rate (4,337 games)
  • Classical: 49.6% win rate (175 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (551 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (721 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (259 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (35 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (602 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (813 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (280 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (1,086 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (1,406 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (371 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.9% expected score (137 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (1,984 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (2,742 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (635 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (41 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (549 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (3,712 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (5,077 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (916 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.4% expected score (58 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (222 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (5,864 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (7,127 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (1,267 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.0% expected score (35 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (93 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (6,021 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (5,755 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (527 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (47 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (6,891 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (1,849 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.8% expected score (82 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 74.4% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (1,501 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (118 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bird Opening
50.1%
Variations (5)
Bird Opening: Batavo-Polish Attack
43.3%
Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation
50.1%
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation
50.5%
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit
45.3%
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit
27.2%
Analyze Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate?

The Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 59K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit perform best?

The Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 51.3% win rate for white (5.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.3%) outperforms Classical (49.6%) by 1.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit?

The Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.1%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 50.8% (90% CI: 48.8%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.6%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.2%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.3%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 8.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.5%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 48.6%-53.4%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.6%) win rate for white (28K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.5%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.0%-52.5%) win rate for white (4.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 49.6% (90% CI: 43.4%-55.8%) win rate for white (175 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.8%.

Is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit a good opening?

The Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit is statistically balanced with a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.