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Bird Opening: Dutch Variation

5.9M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.5%Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 52.5%Based on 5.9M games
0%52.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 52.5%
Outcome Distribution
50.5%3.9%45.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
1...d5
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation
Analyzen=5.9M
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation has a 52.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.4% and 52.5%), based on 5.9M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 48%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.5% win rate (198,196 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.0% win rate (280,195 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.0% win rate (481,864 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.1% win rate (848,134 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.9% win rate (1,316,979 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.0% win rate (1,453,857 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.3% win rate (863,598 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.9% win rate (375,076 games)
  • 2500+: 48.4% win rate (50,366 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (52%), worst in Classical (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.9% win rate (16,991 games)
  • Bullet: 51.8% win rate (2,384,552 games)
  • Blitz: 49.9% win rate (2,857,027 games)
  • Rapid: 48.1% win rate (586,249 games)
  • Classical: 45.3% win rate (23,446 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (361 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (64,171 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (92,113 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (41,007 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 35.4% expected score (544 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (1,235 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (92,699 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (137,672 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (47,111 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (1,478 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (1,887 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (181,493 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (232,894 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (63,020 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (2,570 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.8% expected score (3,443 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (318,319 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (423,829 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (96,742 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (5,801 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (7,053 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (479,755 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (694,643 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (128,555 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (6,973 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (2,202 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (536,823 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (766,119 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (144,084 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (4,629 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (614 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (404,927 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (402,200 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (54,631 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (1,226 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (173 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (264,475 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (99,793 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (10,458 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (177 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (41,890 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (7,764 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (641 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (48 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bird Opening
50.1%
Variations (5)
Bird Opening: Batavo-Polish Attack
43.3%
Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation
50.1%
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit
45.3%
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit
27.2%
Bird Opening: From's Gambit
48.6%
Continuations (2)
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit
45.3%
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit
27.2%
Analyze Bird Opening: Dutch Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate?

The Bird Opening: Dutch Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.9M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation perform best?

The Bird Opening: Dutch Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 51.3% win rate for white (864K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.8%) outperforms Classical (45.3%) by 6.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation?

The Bird Opening: Dutch Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 44.4%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 198K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 280K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 482K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 848K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.3M Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.5M Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 864K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 375K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 50K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 10.7% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.5%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.6%.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.8%-51.9%) win rate for white (2.4M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-49.9%) win rate for white (2.9M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.2%) win rate for white (586K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.8%-45.9%) win rate for white (23K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

Is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation a good opening?

The Bird Opening: Dutch Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.