Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe

438K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.4%Range (90% confident): 54.3% – 54.6%Based on 438K games

0%54.4%100%

Range (90% confident): 54.3% – 54.6%

Outcome Distribution

52.9%3.0%44.1%

Win

Draw

Loss

2...Ne4

Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe

Analyzen=438K

Avg Length31 moves

Sharpness97%

Draw Rate3.0%

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe has a 54.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.3% and 54.6%), based on 438K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 14.3% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 54% → 51%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (63%), worst in UltraBullet (49%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+	—	—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (86 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (13,453 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (31,003 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (22,489 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (250 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.0% expected score (275 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (13,228 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (24,857 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 62.8% expected score (15,386 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 66.0% expected score (700 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 40.6% expected score (1,473 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (17,043 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (22,269 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 63.1% expected score (11,374 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (1,208 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.3% expected score (3,752 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (26,224 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (24,632 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 62.6% expected score (8,344 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 71.1% expected score (1,309 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (6,895 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (35,102 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (25,554 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (5,493 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 62.9% expected score (755 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (6,663 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (38,205 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (19,521 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (2,892 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (379 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.4% expected score (2,550 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (25,015 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (9,947 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (1,097 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 78.3% expected score (18 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (543 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (13,186 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (2,377 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 72.6% expected score (98 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 52.7% expected score (17 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (2,642 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (156 games)

Related Openings

Parent

Alekhine Defense

50.7%

Variations (5)

Alekhine Defense: Balogh Variation

48.3%

Alekhine Defense: Brooklyn Variation

50.9%

Alekhine Defense: Brooklyn Variation, Everglades Variation

53.3%

Alekhine Defense: Buckley Attack

49.7%

Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation

47.4%

Continuations (2)

Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Modern Line

55.4%

Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense

50.1%

Analyze Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe win rate?

The Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 438K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 56.2% win rate for white (54K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (63.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.9%) by 14.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe?

The Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.7%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 67K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe has a 56.2% (90% CI: 55.9%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 54K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe has a 54.3% (90% CI: 54.0%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 53K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 64K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 74K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 68K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.5%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.7%) win rate for white (184K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.6%-54.0%) win rate for white (160K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe has a 58.2% (90% CI: 57.9%-58.6%) win rate for white (67K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe has a 63.2% (90% CI: 62.0%-64.3%) win rate for white (4.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe is statistically favors white with a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe expected score for White?