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Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation

1.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.7%Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 47.8%Based on 1.3M games
0%47.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 47.8%
Outcome Distribution
45.5%4.3%50.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nxd5
Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation
Analyzen=1.3M
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation has a 47.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.6% and 47.8%), based on 1.3M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.4% win rate (15,165 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.9% win rate (29,604 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.8% win rate (79,923 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.2% win rate (165,727 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.6% win rate (287,679 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.2% win rate (358,375 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.8% win rate (239,255 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.6% win rate (109,311 games)
  • 2500+: 41.1% win rate (14,575 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.5% win rate (2,556 games)
  • Bullet: 46.7% win rate (500,118 games)
  • Blitz: 45.1% win rate (648,919 games)
  • Rapid: 43.2% win rate (143,015 games)
  • Classical: 41.1% win rate (5,006 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 74.7% expected score (35 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (5,979 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (5,657 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (3,452 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 75.3% expected score (42 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.7% expected score (119 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (16,709 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (10,119 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (2,569 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (88 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (229 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (41,033 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (32,034 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (6,503 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (124 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.2% expected score (804 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (67,216 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (79,487 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (17,656 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (564 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (574 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (91,418 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (156,218 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (37,856 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.5% expected score (1,613 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.0% expected score (463 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (112,448 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (197,121 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (46,392 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (1,951 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (225 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (92,054 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (122,557 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (23,878 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (541 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 35.3% expected score (104 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (61,174 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (43,350 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (4,600 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (83 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (12,087 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (2,376 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.3% expected score (109 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate?

The Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.3M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.4% win rate for white (15K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.0%) by 4.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation?

The Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 43.2%-44.5%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 80K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 166K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 288K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 358K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 239K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 109K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 45.4%-48.6%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.2%) win rate for white (500K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.2%) win rate for white (649K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.7%) win rate for white (143K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-53.2%) win rate for white (5.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.