Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap
60K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
43.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 43.7%.
Measured over 60K games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 60K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 60K
- Best context
- 52.6% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 29.1% at 1400-1599 Rapid
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.4%
- Draws
- 3.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 36.1% at 0-999, 40.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (47 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 37.1% expected score (2,592 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 36.1% expected score (3,753 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (2,827 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 29.3% expected score (78 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (140 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (1,656 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (2,453 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 31.0% expected score (1,108 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 20.3% expected score (96 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.9% expected score (417 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (2,338 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (4,397 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.3% expected score (1,171 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 24.9% expected score (90 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (444 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (3,092 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (3,333 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 29.1% expected score (871 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 12.3% expected score (143 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (177 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (2,653 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (2,043 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (497 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 27.6% expected score (52 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (33 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (2,885 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (1,773 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (315 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (5,335 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (1,370 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (136 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (7,833 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (666 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (34 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (2,386 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (234 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (25 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap scores 43.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.0% and 43.7% — from 60K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 60K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap win rate?
Playing the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap, White wins 41.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 60K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap perform best?
The Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 51.4% (2.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 42.1% in Blitz (20K games) against 33.5% in Rapid (7.0K games).
How sharp is the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap?
The Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 31.9%, draws 5.3% and loses 62.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 34.6%. It rests on 9.3K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 38.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 58.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.9%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 44.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 40.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 56.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.1%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 44.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 43.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 46.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 6.8K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 43.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 8.5K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 49.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 51.9%, draws 0.9% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.
What is the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 44.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 31K Lichess games.
What is the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 40.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 55.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.1%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.
What is the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 30.6%, draws 5.7% and loses 63.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.5%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games.
What is the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 19.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 76.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 21.4%. It rests on 470 Lichess games.
Is the Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap a good opening?
The Ware Opening: Meadow Hay Trap is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 41.5% of its games and loses 54.9%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.