Ware Opening: Crab Variation
74K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
45.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.8%.
Measured over 74K games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 74K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 74K
- Best context
- 51.1% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 37.9% at 0-999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.9%
- Draws
- 4.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 38.0% at 0-999, 59.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.9% expected score (3,312 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (9,221 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 37.9% expected score (4,823 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (138 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (62 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (3,333 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (8,259 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (3,757 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 35.3% expected score (107 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.8% expected score (68 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (3,039 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (8,765 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (3,461 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (216 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 62.4% expected score (120 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (2,738 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (4,985 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (2,851 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (288 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (62 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (1,645 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (3,426 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (889 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.9% expected score (221 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (32 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,090 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (1,710 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (411 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (28 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,586 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (708 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (158 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 59.4% expected score (79 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (1,119 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (376 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 77.9% expected score (38 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 58.5% expected score (46 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (453 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (60 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ware Opening: Crab Variation scores 45.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.2% and 45.8% — from 74K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 74K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ware Opening: Crab Variation win rate?
Playing the Ware Opening: Crab Variation, White wins 43.4%, draws 4.1% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 74K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ware Opening: Crab Variation perform best?
The Ware Opening: Crab Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 51.7% (1.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ware Opening: Crab Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Ware Opening: Crab Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.1% in Blitz (38K games) against 42.5% in Rapid (16K games).
How sharp is the Ware Opening: Crab Variation?
The Ware Opening: Crab Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Crab Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 39.1%, draws 5.4% and loses 55.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.8%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Crab Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 44.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Crab Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 44.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Crab Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 42.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Crab Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 45.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Crab Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 46.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Crab Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 48.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Crab Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Crab Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 48.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 565 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Ware Opening: Crab Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 52.6%, draws 1.4% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 517 Lichess games.
What is the Ware Opening: Crab Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 45.6%, draws 2.2% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.
What is the Ware Opening: Crab Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 43.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 38K Lichess games.
What is the Ware Opening: Crab Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 39.7%, draws 5.5% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.5%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the Ware Opening: Crab Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 40.8%, draws 4.5% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 980 Lichess games.
Is the Ware Opening: Crab Variation a good opening?
The Ware Opening: Crab Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 43.4% of its games and loses 52.5%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.