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Analyzer

Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit

6.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.3%Range (90% confident): 44.2% – 46.3%Based on 6.1K games
0%45.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.2% – 46.3%
Outcome Distribution
43.2%4.2%52.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...e5
Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit
Analyzen=6.1K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit has a 45.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.2% and 46.3%), based on 6.1K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -4.5% · Breakpoint: 1200-1399

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 56% → 46%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.6% win rate (12 games)
  • 1000-1199: 38.6% win rate (49 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.8% win rate (146 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.4% win rate (370 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.9% win rate (831 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.6% win rate (1,501 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.9% win rate (1,882 games)
  • 2200-2499: 37.8% win rate (1,142 games)
  • 2500+: 46.4% win rate (131 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (48%), worst in Blitz (42%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 45.3% win rate (1,427 games)
  • Blitz: 41.8% win rate (3,918 games)
  • Rapid: 46.2% win rate (688 games)
  • Classical: 47.7% win rate (31 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 36.2% expected score (31 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (43 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (88 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (86 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (229 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (52 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (179 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (518 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (124 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (287 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (1,031 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (176 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 73.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (344 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (1,283 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (246 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (373 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 38.2% expected score (696 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (73 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (94 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.0% expected score (37 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Trompowsky Attack
49.3%
Variations (5)
Trompowsky Attack: Classical Defense
49.2%
Trompowsky Attack: Classical Defense, Big Center Variation
49.5%
Trompowsky Attack: Edge Variation
50.9%
Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation
50.9%
Trompowsky Attack: Borg Variation
55.7%
Analyze Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit win rate?

The Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.1K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit perform best?

The Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 56.9% win rate for white (1.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (53.6%) outperforms Rapid (49.2%) by 4.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit?

The Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit has a 47.1% (90% CI: 40.4%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 146 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit has a 48.3% (90% CI: 44.1%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 370 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit has a 51.7% (90% CI: 48.9%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 831 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.3%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit has a 56.9% (90% CI: 54.5%-59.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit has a 47.9% (90% CI: 40.8%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 131 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit has a 51.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-54.0%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.3%-55.0%) win rate for white (3.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit has a 49.2% (90% CI: 46.1%-52.4%) win rate for white (688 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

Is the Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit a good opening?

The Trompowsky Attack: Raptor Variation, Hergert Gambit is statistically favors white with a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.