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Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch

39K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.2%Range (90% confident): 48.8% – 49.6%Based on 39K games
0%49.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.8% – 49.6%
Outcome Distribution
44.6%9.1%46.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...Bc5
Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch
Analyzen=39K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness91%
Draw Rate9.1%

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch has a 49.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.8% and 49.6%), based on 39K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.4% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 65% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 64.7% win rate (7 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.9% win rate (52 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.4% win rate (173 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.1% win rate (494 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.7% win rate (1,577 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.5% win rate (4,597 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.1% win rate (10,113 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.7% win rate (16,567 games)
  • 2500+: 41.3% win rate (5,223 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (46%), worst in UltraBullet (36%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 36.0% win rate (11 games)
  • Bullet: 46.3% win rate (14,962 games)
  • Blitz: 43.8% win rate (21,365 games)
  • Rapid: 41.1% win rate (2,319 games)
  • Classical: 36.9% win rate (146 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (28 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (70 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (76 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 34.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (218 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (225 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (48 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (625 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (765 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (173 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (1,648 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (2,515 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (394 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (37 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (3,308 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (6,086 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (672 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (46 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (5,941 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (9,765 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (828 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (3,122 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (1,908 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (180 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Tarrasch Defense
48.8%
Variations (5)
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation
49.0%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation
44.6%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation
46.6%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation
48.9%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Classical Tarrasch Gambit
45.0%
Analyze Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate?

The Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch has a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.2%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 39K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch perform best?

The Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 48.5% win rate for white (4.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (46.3%) outperforms Classical (36.9%) by 9.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch?

The Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch has a sharpness score of 90.9 (decisive), meaning 90.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch has a 48.4% (90% CI: 42.2%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 173 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch has a 45.1% (90% CI: 41.4%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 494 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch has a 48.7% (90% CI: 46.7%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.3%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.3%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch has a 43.7% (90% CI: 43.1%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 9.2% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch has a 41.3% (90% CI: 40.2%-42.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 18.3% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.0%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch has a 43.8% (90% CI: 43.2%-44.4%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.1%.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch has a 41.1% (90% CI: 39.5%-42.8%) win rate for white (2.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 15.5%.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch has a 36.9% (90% CI: 30.5%-43.6%) win rate for white (146 Lichess games). Draw rate is 17.3%.

Is the Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch a good opening?

The Tarrasch Defense: Dubov Tarrasch is statistically balanced with a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.2%-45.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.