TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation

18K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score52.6%Range (90% confident): 52.0% – 53.2%Based on 18K games
0%52.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.0% – 53.2%
Outcome Distribution
48.9%7.5%43.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
9.Bg5
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation
Analyzen=18K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate7.5%

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 52.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.0% and 53.2%), based on 18K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 27% → 48%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 27.3% win rate (4 games)
  • 1000-1199: 59.5% win rate (38 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.2% win rate (131 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.2% win rate (352 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.7% win rate (991 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.5% win rate (2,678 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.3% win rate (5,611 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.8% win rate (6,918 games)
  • 2500+: 47.9% win rate (1,665 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (63%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 48.3% win rate (7,815 games)
  • Blitz: 49.0% win rate (9,325 games)
  • Rapid: 51.4% win rate (1,167 games)
  • Classical: 62.7% win rate (79 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 59.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (57 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (56 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 60.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (132 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (173 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.0% expected score (43 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (362 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (501 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.3% expected score (113 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 74.3% expected score (15 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (817 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (1,616 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (213 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 62.3% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (1,657 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (3,507 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (424 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 80.6% expected score (23 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (3,492 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (3,080 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (340 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (1,278 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (373 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 66.1% expected score (14 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Tarrasch Defense
48.8%
Variations (5)
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation
49.0%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation
44.6%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation
46.6%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Classical Tarrasch Gambit
45.0%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Endgame Variation
48.7%
Analyze Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate?

The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 18K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation perform best?

The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 51.7% win rate for white (991 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (62.7%) outperforms Bullet (48.3%) by 14.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation?

The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a sharpness score of 92.5 (decisive), meaning 92.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 43.1%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 131 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 45.8%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 352 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 49.1%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 991 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 47.9%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.2%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.1% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 45.9%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 9.6% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.3%-49.2%) win rate for white (7.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.8%) win rate for white (9.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.9%.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 49.0%-53.8%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.4%.

Is the Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation a good opening?

The Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation is statistically favors white with a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.