TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation

2.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score46.8%Range (90% confident): 45.2% – 48.3%Based on 2.8K games
0%46.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.2% – 48.3%
Outcome Distribution
45.4%2.7%51.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.c4
Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation
Analyzen=2.8K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.7%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation has a 46.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 45.2% and 48.3%), based on 2.8K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -8.4% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 31% → 60%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 31.3% win rate (32 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.9% win rate (68 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.1% win rate (70 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.3% win rate (293 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.2% win rate (1,219 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.4% win rate (770 games)
  • 2000-2199: 37.4% win rate (270 games)
  • 2200-2499: 39.0% win rate (28 games)
  • 2500+: 60.0% win rate (6 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (48%), worst in Blitz (43%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 48.4% win rate (905 games)
  • Blitz: 43.4% win rate (1,638 games)
  • Rapid: 47.8% win rate (196 games)
  • Classical: 45.9% win rate (17 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 38.4% expected score (37 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (54 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (208 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (31 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (596 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (577 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (45 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (132 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (570 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (57 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (70 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 38.1% expected score (170 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 37.3% expected score (26 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 43.8%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 47.4% win rate for white (770 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.4%) outperforms Blitz (43.4%) by 5.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 41.6%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 293 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 43.8%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 44.4%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 770 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation has a 37.4% (90% CI: 32.6%-42.3%) win rate for white, based on 270 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 45.6%-51.1%) win rate for white (905 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation has a 43.4% (90% CI: 41.4%-45.4%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 42.0%-53.7%) win rate for white (196 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.4% (90% CI: 43.8%-46.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.