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Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation

270K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.5%Range (90% confident): 50.4% – 50.7%Based on 270K games
0%50.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.4% – 50.7%
Outcome Distribution
48.6%3.7%47.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.a3
Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation
Analyzen=270K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation has a 50.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.4% and 50.7%), based on 270K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +4.5% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 42% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.8% win rate (435 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.5% win rate (1,939 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.4% win rate (5,748 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.8% win rate (14,943 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.7% win rate (35,481 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.2% win rate (73,471 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.6% win rate (82,853 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.3% win rate (50,287 games)
  • 2500+: 50.4% win rate (4,682 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (58%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 57.9% win rate (8 games)
  • Bullet: 50.3% win rate (76,344 games)
  • Blitz: 48.4% win rate (165,532 games)
  • Rapid: 45.9% win rate (26,905 games)
  • Classical: 43.3% win rate (1,050 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (217 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (173 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (43 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (805 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (913 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (216 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (1,820 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (3,072 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (841 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (3,562 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (8,821 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (2,482 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (76 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (9,119 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (20,773 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (5,228 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (361 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (16,364 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (48,824 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (7,921 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (362 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (20,963 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (53,739 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (7,950 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (199 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (20,135 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (27,955 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (2,163 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (34 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (3,359 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (1,262 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (61 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.5%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 270K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.3% win rate for white (50K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.3%) outperforms Classical (43.3%) by 7.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation has a 41.8% (90% CI: 38.0%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 435 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 46.6%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.3%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.1%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 73K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 83K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 50K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.2%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.6%) win rate for white (76K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.6%) win rate for white (166K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.4%) win rate for white (27K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 40.8%-45.8%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marshall Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.5%-48.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.