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Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation

2.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.9%Range (90% confident): 48.1% – 51.6%Based on 2.2K games
0%49.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.1% – 51.6%
Outcome Distribution
47.5%4.7%47.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Bb2
Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation
Analyzen=2.2K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.7%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation has a 49.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.1% and 51.6%), based on 2.2K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +2.3% · Breakpoint: 1600-1799

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1400-1599: 31.4% win rate (16 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.1% win rate (122 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.1% win rate (491 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.0% win rate (620 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.5% win rate (745 games)
  • 2500+: 53.1% win rate (214 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (36%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 48.6% win rate (364 games)
  • Blitz: 47.8% win rate (1,653 games)
  • Rapid: 42.8% win rate (182 games)
  • Classical: 35.5% win rate (14 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199———
1200-1399————
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 15.2% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (31 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (81 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (60 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (399 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 37.7% expected score (31 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (89 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (443 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (78 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (134 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (553 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.8% expected score (56 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (43 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.0% expected score (166 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 45.7%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.5% win rate for white (745 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (47.8%) outperforms Rapid (42.8%) by 5.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation has a 44.1% (90% CI: 36.9%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 122 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation has a 43.1% (90% CI: 39.5%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 491 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 41.7%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 620 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 48.5%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 745 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 47.5%-58.7%) win rate for white, based on 214 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 44.3%-52.9%) win rate for white (364 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 45.8%-49.9%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation has a 42.8% (90% CI: 36.8%-48.8%) win rate for white (182 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Marienbad Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.5% (90% CI: 45.7%-49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.