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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred

508K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score52.0%Range (90% confident): 51.8% – 52.1%Based on 508K games
0%52.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.8% – 52.1%
Outcome Distribution
50.2%3.5%46.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.c3
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred
Analyzen=508K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred has a 52.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.8% and 52.1%), based on 508K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +7.7% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.3% win rate (716 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.8% win rate (3,703 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.9% win rate (13,583 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.2% win rate (37,800 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.1% win rate (78,684 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.2% win rate (129,287 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.1% win rate (135,395 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.1% win rate (94,676 games)
  • 2500+: 52.0% win rate (14,032 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (53%), worst in Classical (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.8% win rate (568 games)
  • Bullet: 50.3% win rate (261,769 games)
  • Blitz: 50.1% win rate (219,198 games)
  • Rapid: 49.9% win rate (25,594 games)
  • Classical: 49.1% win rate (747 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (442 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (228 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (2,170 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (1,297 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (230 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (44 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6,692 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (5,993 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (847 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.9% expected score (93 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (16,546 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (18,180 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (2,904 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (77 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (237 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (32,935 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (39,288 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (5,999 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (225 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (139 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (54,865 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (65,862 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (8,136 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (285 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (67,007 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (62,356 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (5,867 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (138 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (68,003 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (25,101 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (1,543 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (13,109 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (893 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 508K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.0% win rate for white (14K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.3%) outperforms Classical (49.1%) by 1.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred has a 48.3% (90% CI: 45.2%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 716 Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.5%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 79K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 129K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 135K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 95K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred has a 52.8% (90% CI: 49.3%-56.2%) win rate for white (568 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.4%) win rate for white (262K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.2%) win rate for white (219K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.5%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred has a 49.1% (90% CI: 46.1%-52.1%) win rate for white (747 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred is statistically balanced with a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.