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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation

326K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.5%Range (90% confident): 49.3% – 49.6%Based on 326K games
0%49.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.3% – 49.6%
Outcome Distribution
46.9%5.1%48.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...d5
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation
Analyzen=326K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.1%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation has a 49.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.3% and 49.6%), based on 326K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +6.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.2% win rate (743 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.3% win rate (2,447 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.1% win rate (7,494 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.2% win rate (20,067 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.0% win rate (45,768 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.0% win rate (86,552 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.0% win rate (94,699 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.2% win rate (58,854 games)
  • 2500+: 50.6% win rate (9,221 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (48%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.0% win rate (623 games)
  • Bullet: 48.4% win rate (117,072 games)
  • Blitz: 46.3% win rate (179,172 games)
  • Rapid: 44.0% win rate (27,781 games)
  • Classical: 41.8% win rate (1,197 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (330 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (325 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.5% expected score (85 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,188 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (1,001 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (251 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (3,030 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (3,636 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (785 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.5% expected score (162 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (6,895 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (10,801 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (2,104 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (105 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (134 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (14,049 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (26,233 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (5,092 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (260 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (113 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (23,121 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (53,966 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (8,861 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (491 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (84 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (27,810 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (58,327 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (8,199 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (279 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.0% expected score (97 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (32,379 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (23,976 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (2,367 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (35 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (8,270 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (907 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.7% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 326K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.6% win rate for white (9.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.4%) outperforms Classical (41.8%) by 6.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation has a 43.2% (90% CI: 40.2%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 743 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 44.6%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.1%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 7.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 87K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 95K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 59K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 42.8%-49.3%) win rate for white (623 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.6%) win rate for white (117K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.5%) win rate for white (179K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation has a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.5%-44.5%) win rate for white (28K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation has a 41.8% (90% CI: 39.5%-44.2%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.1%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Scandinavian Formation is statistically balanced with a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.