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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation

549K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.7%Range (90% confident): 50.6% – 50.8%Based on 549K games
0%50.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.6% – 50.8%
Outcome Distribution
48.4%4.6%47.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...d3
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation
Analyzen=549K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation has a 50.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.6% and 50.8%), based on 549K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +8.1% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.9% win rate (409 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.7% win rate (1,821 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.2% win rate (7,550 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.1% win rate (27,018 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.6% win rate (75,193 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.6% win rate (155,698 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.5% win rate (165,916 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.8% win rate (98,408 games)
  • 2500+: 51.6% win rate (17,104 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.9% win rate (262 games)
  • Bullet: 48.4% win rate (184,985 games)
  • Blitz: 48.5% win rate (318,172 games)
  • Rapid: 47.5% win rate (43,718 games)
  • Classical: 45.6% win rate (1,980 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (229 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (129 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (50 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (1,121 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (562 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (133 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (3,487 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (3,389 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (656 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 36.8% expected score (25 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (9,656 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (14,781 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (2,485 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (71 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (50 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (20,951 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (46,053 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (7,750 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (389 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 64.5% expected score (54 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (37,180 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (102,180 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (15,328 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (956 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (43,699 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (107,834 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (13,871 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (499 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 35.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (53,186 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (41,727 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (3,404 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (51 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (70 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (15,476 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.4% expected score (1,517 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 66.5% expected score (41 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 549K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.6% win rate for white (17K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (48.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (46.9%) by 1.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 43.8%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 409 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 43.8%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.3%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 7.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.3%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 75K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 156K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 166K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 98K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 41.8%-51.9%) win rate for white (262 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.6%) win rate for white (185K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.6%) win rate for white (318K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.9%) win rate for white (44K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 43.8%-47.5%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.3%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.