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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation

47K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.6%Range (90% confident): 52.2% – 53.0%Based on 47K games
0%52.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.2% – 53.0%
Outcome Distribution
49.9%5.3%44.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.c4
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation
Analyzen=47K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.3%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation has a 52.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.2% and 53.0%), based on 47K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +6.8% · Breakpoint: 1200-1399

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 23% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 23.1% win rate (5 games)
  • 1000-1199: 40.7% win rate (12 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.4% win rate (143 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.1% win rate (786 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.3% win rate (3,250 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.1% win rate (10,811 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.5% win rate (15,489 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.9% win rate (13,437 games)
  • 2500+: 52.1% win rate (2,668 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (57%), worst in UltraBullet (29%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 29.4% win rate (7 games)
  • Bullet: 50.3% win rate (15,222 games)
  • Blitz: 49.8% win rate (27,825 games)
  • Rapid: 48.8% win rate (3,359 games)
  • Classical: 56.7% win rate (188 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (99 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (344 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (398 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (41 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (1,111 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (1,890 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (230 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 64.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (1,988 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (7,835 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (915 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.4% expected score (70 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (3,496 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (10,372 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (1,534 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.5% expected score (87 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (6,019 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (6,784 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (623 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 71.8% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (2,158 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (503 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 47K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.1% win rate for white (2.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (56.7%) outperforms Rapid (48.8%) by 7.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 40.6%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 143 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 46.2%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 786 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 47.8%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 50.5%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.6%-51.0%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.3%) win rate for white (28K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.4%-50.2%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation has a 56.7% (90% CI: 50.8%-62.6%) win rate for white (188 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation is statistically favors white with a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.