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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation

286K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score48.9%Range (90% confident): 48.7% – 49.0%Based on 286K games
0%48.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.7% – 49.0%
Outcome Distribution
46.8%4.1%49.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...e5
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation
Analyzen=286K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation has a 48.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.7% and 49.0%), based on 286K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -2.1% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~48%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.0% win rate (2,880 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.4% win rate (8,411 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.2% win rate (21,288 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.9% win rate (44,910 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.0% win rate (71,158 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.4% win rate (74,898 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.0% win rate (41,699 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.3% win rate (18,009 games)
  • 2500+: 47.4% win rate (2,907 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Classical (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.6% win rate (199 games)
  • Bullet: 47.4% win rate (77,821 games)
  • Blitz: 46.8% win rate (157,928 games)
  • Rapid: 45.6% win rate (48,316 games)
  • Classical: 44.9% win rate (1,896 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (800 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (1,552 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (524 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (2,619 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (4,467 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (1,303 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 63.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (5,410 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (12,355 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (3,423 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (85 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 61.3% expected score (34 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (9,528 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (26,901 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (8,068 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (379 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (42 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (13,446 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (42,611 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (14,313 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (746 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (47 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (16,003 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (43,849 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (14,457 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (542 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (14,911 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (21,054 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (5,595 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (116 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.3% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (12,350 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (4,988 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (631 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (2,754 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (151 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.6%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 286K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 47.0% win rate for white (71K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.4%) outperforms Classical (44.9%) by 2.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.5%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.5%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 8.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 71K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 75K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.7%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 45.8%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 44.8%-56.4%) win rate for white (199 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.7%) win rate for white (78K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.0%) win rate for white (158K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.2%-45.9%) win rate for white (48K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.1%-46.8%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation is statistically balanced with a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.6%-46.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.