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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation

105K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score48.2%Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 48.5%Based on 105K games
0%48.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 48.5%
Outcome Distribution
46.4%3.5%50.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nf6
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation
Analyzen=105K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation has a 48.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.0% and 48.5%), based on 105K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +0.1% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~47%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.4% win rate (821 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.3% win rate (2,862 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.0% win rate (7,596 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.8% win rate (15,421 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.5% win rate (21,718 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.2% win rate (24,384 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.8% win rate (18,108 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.1% win rate (11,547 games)
  • 2500+: 48.7% win rate (2,768 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (50%), worst in Rapid (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.9% win rate (312 games)
  • Bullet: 48.0% win rate (46,221 games)
  • Blitz: 45.4% win rate (46,797 games)
  • Rapid: 44.3% win rate (11,422 games)
  • Classical: 45.2% win rate (473 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (330 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (359 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (130 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,310 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (1,173 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (371 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (2,825 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (3,758 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (996 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (59 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (4,917 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (8,099 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (2,257 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (89 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.2% expected score (44 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (7,291 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (11,013 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (3,210 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (160 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (79 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (10,094 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (11,345 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (2,716 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (150 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (44 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (8,725 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (7,952 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (1,337 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (50 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (65 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (8,094 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (2,984 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (399 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (2,635 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (114 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 105K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 48.7% win rate for white (2.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.0%) outperforms Classical (45.2%) by 2.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 44.5%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 821 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.8%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 7.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.1%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.1%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 45.3%-54.6%) win rate for white (312 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.4%) win rate for white (46K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.0%-45.7%) win rate for white (47K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation has a 44.3% (90% CI: 43.5%-45.0%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 41.5%-49.0%) win rate for white (473 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Alapin Formation is slightly favors black with a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.