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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation

383K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.3%Range (90% confident): 51.1% – 51.4%Based on 383K games
0%51.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.1% – 51.4%
Outcome Distribution
49.6%3.4%47.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...a6
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation
Analyzen=383K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation has a 51.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.1% and 51.4%), based on 383K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +2.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~47%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.3% win rate (522 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.8% win rate (2,963 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.7% win rate (10,754 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.0% win rate (31,703 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.1% win rate (70,859 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.8% win rate (111,783 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.0% win rate (94,090 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.3% win rate (51,190 games)
  • 2500+: 48.7% win rate (9,449 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (50%), worst in UltraBullet (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 41.5% win rate (31 games)
  • Bullet: 50.0% win rate (107,027 games)
  • Blitz: 49.4% win rate (227,533 games)
  • Rapid: 49.2% win rate (46,988 games)
  • Classical: 46.4% win rate (1,734 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (338 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (164 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,674 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (1,154 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (131 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (4,534 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (5,390 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (819 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (9,903 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (18,202 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (3,461 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (130 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (15,986 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (44,168 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (10,219 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (478 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (21,348 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (72,460 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (17,274 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (696 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (22,139 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (59,543 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (12,049 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (356 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (23,141 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (25,033 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (2,953 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (60 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (7,964 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (1,419 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.2% expected score (62 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 77.3% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 383K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 50.1% win rate for white (71K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.0%) outperforms Classical (46.4%) by 3.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 43.7%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 522 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 1.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.3%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 71K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 112K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 94K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 51K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.9%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 9.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.3%) win rate for white (107K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.6%) win rate for white (228K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.6%) win rate for white (47K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 44.4%-48.4%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation is statistically balanced with a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.