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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense

42K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.8%Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 53.2%Based on 42K games
0%52.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 53.2%
Outcome Distribution
51.2%3.2%45.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Bc5
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense
Analyzen=42K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense has a 52.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.4% and 53.2%), based on 42K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +7.1% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 40% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 39.9% win rate (80 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.8% win rate (358 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.2% win rate (1,393 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.6% win rate (4,303 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.3% win rate (9,191 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.7% win rate (13,178 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.1% win rate (9,111 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.8% win rate (3,892 games)
  • 2500+: 52.4% win rate (324 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (53%), worst in UltraBullet (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.5% win rate (4 games)
  • Bullet: 52.8% win rate (11,923 games)
  • Blitz: 50.7% win rate (24,314 games)
  • Rapid: 50.3% win rate (5,380 games)
  • Classical: 49.6% win rate (209 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (42 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (30 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (174 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (165 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (540 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (716 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (134 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (1,296 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (2,490 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (493 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (2,160 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (5,724 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (1,240 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.7% expected score (67 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (2,778 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (8,383 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (1,944 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (73 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (2,430 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (5,374 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (1,262 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (44 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (2,212 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (1,404 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (275 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (291 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 80.8% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 42K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (3.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.8%) outperforms Classical (49.6%) by 3.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense has a 53.8% (90% CI: 49.5%-58.1%) win rate for white, based on 358 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.0%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.5%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 9.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 9.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense has a 52.8% (90% CI: 51.5%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense has a 52.4% (90% CI: 47.8%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 324 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.6%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.2%) win rate for white (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.2%-51.4%) win rate for white (5.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 44.0%-55.3%) win rate for white (209 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense is statistically favors white with a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.