TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation

222K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.3%Range (90% confident): 51.1% – 51.5%Based on 222K games
0%51.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.1% – 51.5%
Outcome Distribution
49.6%3.3%47.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...a6
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation
Analyzen=222K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation has a 51.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.1% and 51.5%), based on 222K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +7.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.6% win rate (224 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.0% win rate (1,082 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.5% win rate (4,602 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.5% win rate (15,529 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.2% win rate (38,248 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.7% win rate (64,315 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.6% win rate (57,251 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.5% win rate (34,761 games)
  • 2500+: 52.1% win rate (6,156 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (57%), worst in Blitz (50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 56.5% win rate (33 games)
  • Bullet: 49.8% win rate (67,330 games)
  • Blitz: 49.5% win rate (129,042 games)
  • Rapid: 49.8% win rate (24,818 games)
  • Classical: 49.9% win rate (945 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (161 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (57 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (659 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (347 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (74 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (1,975 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (2,281 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (337 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (4,935 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (8,835 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (1,689 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (69 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (17 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (8,440 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (23,915 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (5,570 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (306 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 66.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (12,437 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (42,109 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (9,362 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (396 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (14,165 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (36,467 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (6,468 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (150 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (19,014 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (14,437 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (1,294 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 74.3% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (5,544 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (594 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 68.0% expected score (18 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 222K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.1% win rate for white (6.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.8%) outperforms Classical (49.9%) by -0.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 39.2%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 224 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 44.5%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.3%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 64K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 57K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.1%) win rate for white (67K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.7%) win rate for white (129K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.4%) win rate for white (25K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 47.2%-52.6%) win rate for white (945 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Kan Formation is statistically balanced with a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.