20K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense has a 50.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.1% and 51.3%), based on 20K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 43% → 50%
Best in Blitz (49%), worst in Classical (43%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 20K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 53.0% win rate for white (696 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (49.1%) outperforms Classical (42.5%) by 6.6%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense has a 46.8% (90% CI: 40.7%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 179 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 696 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.2%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.3%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense has a 46.9% (90% CI: 45.7%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense has a 46.5% (90% CI: 44.9%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 45.2%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 321 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.1%-49.2%) win rate for white (6.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.9%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense has a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.6%-49.9%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense is statistically balanced with a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.